SCAG Regional Travel Demand Model - Los Angeles

The Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) traffic model is the largest model of its kind in the nation. Based upon that model, SCAG socio-economic data and results from an extensive parking survey conducted across the region, TJKM very successfully developed an original model for forecasting parking prices. Before selecting TJKM, SCAG worked with three major transportation consulting firms to develop a parking price model, but never succeeded. Parking price forecasts are critical to estimate the future use of transit and carpools, which is crucial to improving air quality and traffic congestion and very important in the Los Angeles area.

At first, TJKM analysts were puzzled by apparent contradictions in observed parking data. Using data mining software that incorporated all available information from parking surveys, and after three solid days of computer time, TJKM noticed a very complex relationship between the available data and parking prices. TJKM’s modeling team provided the insight that helped in preparing the final successful analysis: the boundaries of traffic analysis zones (one of the primary variables in the model) sometimes divide parking locations from ultimate destinations, especially in downtown Los Angeles and other densely developed areas and this division could inappropriately influence the statistical relationships between trips to and from a traffic analysis zone and the related parking supply and price. This and other insights by TJKM staff resulted in a successful specialized function model within the overall SCAG forecasting model and won the praise of SCAG.

To learn more about transportation modeling and travel demand forecasting, contact Christopher Thnay at cthnay@tjkm.com.